Last week the contract came into effect for December 2023, the first futures contract for dollars low the new administration.
Although the volume seems to be decreasing, the devaluation rate shows a big jump compared to the last month of the current management.
Devaluation in the first month of management
The trading of the dollar futures contract expiring in December 2023, that is, the first month of the mandate of the new government, already started in rofex.
That contract is priced at $365 against the dollar, in front of the $322 November. This suggests a possible change of pace in the "glide" of the official rate in the first days of the new government.
The analysts of Delphos Investments said that "the monthly implicit rate in December 2023 is slightly above the 9%, while the previous months remain stable at around 5%they said.
That is, the market, through the contract until December 2023, he realizes that the next government will be able to implement an exchange rate as soon as he takes office.
In a way, it is also speculated that this will be a countermeasure against exchange rate shocks associated with the inauguration of the next government.
Pablo Repetto, head of survey Values Aurum, understands that the first actions of any new government must consider at least disclosing some variables.
"In the context of a new government, it seems unlikely that the exchange rates of the sector will advance in the offer, so even if there is no blind opening of shares, it will be necessary to initiate an exchange normalization process as part of a plan of stabilization. it requires (among other things) a slight increase in the exchange rate,” said Reppetto.
The curve calculated based on the annual standard depreciation rate of rofex, shows the expected depreciation that goes from 87% to 93% during the next 11 months, then jump to 105% at the end of the year.
Adrian Yarde Buller, economist head of Fasimex Securities, also believes that it is difficult to predict what kind of currency correction we will have after the elections.
"Today it is too soon to know if the exchange rate correction will be gradual or shock because we have a very large part of the public debt that is exposed to the exchange rate and it is not clear if this will continue until 2024," he said. saying. commented.
Even so, the economist of Fasimex Values He points out that the management of the exchange rate will be essential for the next government.
“We have a very high exchange rate differential, low net reserves and severe restrictions on economically critical imports. The management of the exchange rate will be essential in any attempt to normalize the functioning of the economy, so it is expected that the next government will have to face this problem from the beginning”, he said.
A bank stockbroker local emphasized that the market andHe is speculating with the end of the rise in the exchange rate and the arrival of the next government.
“First of all, the December 2023 contract volume is small, but the managed value should increase in the exchange rate compared to November. The market expects measures to shake the exchange rate in the first month of government. At that time, Macri suddenly withdrew his shares. Now there is speculation about an imminent drop in the exchange rate after the arrival of the new president,” said the operator.
Short-term devaluation forecast
The expectation of a fall in the exchange rate accompanies a scenario in which the futures curve of the dollar showed a slight increase in recent weeks, in the midst of a context of greater exchange rate volatility in the informal dollar and in financial markets.
The futures chart of the dollar recovered, raising expectations of a monthly depreciation of the currency from 6% to 7% which went into effect last week.
At the same time, the BCRA slightly raises the discount rate.
Cohen analysts warn that the devaluation of the official exchange rate has accelerated at a rate of 5.3% monthly, from the 5% of the previous two weeks.
“The difference between the official dollar and the financial dollar implicit in the GD30 subtitle, which was around 80%, increased despite the interventions of public bodies (FGS) on this world dollar subtitle, which leads to daily financial stabilization of the dollar. However, the pair's daily rally broke above 5%, pushing the spread against the dollar above 90% again,” they say.
Finally, Juan Manuel Franco, economist head of SBS Group, agrees that the futures curve of the dollar it has started to show an increase in the frequency of implied dollar weakness in recent sessions. After a few months, the trend is rapidly declining.
"We believe that the recent rate hike is due to drought forecasts, which means less flow of dollars to Argentina," he said.
Regarding the dynamics of the exchange rate in the medium term, Franco sees it as dependent on the flow of dollars in the coming months.
"The market will continue to evaluate the dynamics of the exchange market, since there is more certainty both in relation to the flows of dollars and in relation to the candidates for the election and their possible courses of action in case of victory," he explained.