Following the latest measures taken by the economic team to appease the dynamics of the Dollars financial. The market is analyzing what opportunities exist for success.
On Tuesday, the financial dollar showed a mixed trend, with the Cash Box (CCL) recording a small drop in US$ 2.19 to US$ 359 and a four day drop staying high, and the Stock Market (MEP) going up almost US$ 3 and is negotiated around US$ 353.
This dynamic occurred shortly after the Central Bank (BCRA) readjust upwards the rate of foreign exchange operations of the Mutual Investment Funds (FCI) and establish that it would be equivalent to 95 % of the entities' repo operations, which currently it is from 72%.
Pedro Martinez Gerber, economist of the PxQ Consultant, explained to Ámbito that "the measure aims to improve the efficiency of money markets FCI or T0”, and recalled that in addition to last week's decision to increase the rates of transfer 1 day for banks.
However, these are not isolated measures, "given in a context of greater pressure on financial dollars."
Thus, in the words of the economist and director of MyR Associates, Fabio Rodríguez, “it is a measure whose trigger must be sought in the problems that the economy has to make the prices fall. financial dollars, the cerulean and the exchange rate”.
High Rates: the BCRA rate
what happened to Rodriguez was that the bond buybacks announced by the government did not work as expected.
And the pressure on the exchange rate continues. Thus, the Government is implementing a measure that what it does is "promote a general increase in interest rates, which will incite banks or the public to raise interest rates and also shorten the liquidity horizon”.
So ultimately what they're trying to do is maintain liquidity so they don't put pressure on lenders.
However, Rodríguez warns that the costs of these policies are high because the balance of the BCRA, both for the banks (higher funding costs and lower margins) and for the miguxo that will have to remunerate more and compete with the BCRA by FCP liquidity.
Can the BCRA control the exchange gap?
However, if the government manages to close the gap, it can claim that it has done so for the common good. The floats? From the Bullmarket Brokers survey team they consider it possible.
"At the time I took the interest rate hikes, the dollar should remain at these current prices, since the redemptions are arranged with the guarantor and it will be more expensive to withdraw money and it will be convenient to put that money," they maintain. Thus, they consider that it will give incentives to the dollar, as the BCRA wants.
For his part, Mateo Reschini, a senior analyst at the consulting firm Inviu, points out that although the first day after the economic measure there was calm, "it takes time for it to have an impact on the performance of investment funds" moment.
What he hopes that although the financial dollars are pretty quiet right now, in the next few days or weeks we could start to see a stronger effect of this rate readjustment that the BCRA to keep the finances under control.
For his part, martinez gerber He is more conservative in his optimism and points out that "as long as the government does not get foreign currency to clear the external front and meet the demand for imports, the pressure on the budgetary situation in financial dollars”, no matter how many times you take these kinds of measures.
In the same direction is the economist from eca Go, Juan Delich, which highlights that "these measures and others that have been taken in recent weeks do not seem to have the expected success at this time."
However the economist Federico Glustein does not rule out that the desired effect of appeasing the financiers is achieved by raising the interest rates, but warn that "It will depend on how much the market validates them."
In this sense, he notes that the initial reaction to these ads, which do not align with the intention of economic managementTherefore, he defends that it is probable that in the next few days we will see a constant reaction to these measures. It all depends on how the agent reads it or the context.