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The price of the United States currency dropped around $300 in 2023, reaching a minimum of $4502, experts say downward pressure is expected in these months.

The emerging currency that leads the rise in 2023 is the Colombian peso. In the accumulated result of the year it is already appreciated 7,30% against the dollar. On Russian Ruble, Chilean Peso, Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real.

The price of the dollar in Colombia has fallen by a few $300 this year, reaching a minimum of $4,502 and marking a Minimum Market Representative Rate (TRM) of $4,531.75 on January 1.

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These levels have not been seen since September 2022, when the exchange rate was $4.532.

There was little change in trends last Friday and increased from $4,531.75 to $4,548.50 at the close of the market with the entry into force of the TRM on Monday.

Rise of the Colombian peso

Juan David Ballen, director of housing analysis and strategy at SCB Bag, told EL HERALDO that the dollar in Colombia is characterized by much greater volatility than in others countries due to structural factors.

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“Few agents participate in Colombia and the volume of business is low. For these reasons, the Colombian peso always manages to lead the charts, both in terms of devaluation and appreciation,” said Ballén.

He added that since last year the dollar in Colombia It has appreciated much more than in the rest of the countries of the region due to the uncertainty generated by the project of tenergy transition in the country.

"This year it fell much more than in the rest of the countries that are trying to adjust a little more to the level at which the dollar is in the region, which is much lower," explained the specialist.

Internal and external factors

About, Henry Amorocho, professor of public finance at the Rosario University, said that between the months of January and February there will be downward pressure on the exchange rate due to the inflow of funds from the large contributors and monetization of corporate cash, flows, in order to refine the financing of the exercise.

Jose Joaquin Prieto, director of operations BTG Pactual, said that after knowing the data of inflation in the United States, which were lower than expected and show less force in price rises, the expectation that the Fed will stop raising interest rates led to the world's greatest appetite for other currencies.

“If yields start to fall in the United States or if the increase is less, all investors will want to diversify their investments and start looking for other places where they have higher yields, such as Latin America,” Prieto explained.

This point is also shared by economist Juan David Ballén, who ensures that the dollar weakened in the world this year due to external factors, which have to do with the inflation drop in USA, since the pressure for the Fed to raise interest rates above the current level.

The dollar continues to fall, how long will it continue?

He added that from the national level it is necessary to see how the nation pays its rents.

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"Since the interest rates in the country are high, as well as the national debt of the TES, this creates an attraction because investing in these subtitles, therefore, yields more than what is paid abroad," explained the expert. .

He added that this has encouraged investors, mainly from the offshore region, to come to the country and invest in our assets.

Prieto argued that another important factor that influences the appreciation of the US currency is the payment of taxes.

“Companies in Colombia have to pay their taxes on a schedule that goes from February to June, so the companies had to monetize those that have foreign trade in dollars to have pesos with which to pay those taxes, and we are talking about a significant amount ”, highlighted the commercial manager of BTG Pactual.

What is expected

Henry Amorocho expects that in these first months there will be downward pressure that will lead to the type of change to US$ 4,500 and then the dollar to US$ 4,700.

“At the end of the year, when the global economic slowdown becomes more pronounced, we can talk about an exchange floor reaching US$ 4,300,” Amorocho said.

Analysts guarantee that the dovishness of prices and the expectations of movements of the US Fed will be fundamental for the exchange rate dynamics.

The winners and the losers

The specialist Henrique Amorocho pointed out that many producers who suffered the strong devaluation of the currency last year and producers who depend on imported inputs and raw materials will benefit, since they will have lower costs.

"This will help improve the profitability of the industrial sector and the agricultural sector itself," explained the public finance professor at the Universidad del Rosario.

Jeisson Balaguera, executive director of AAA Values, defended that among those who lose with this drop of the dollar are those who receive dollars from abroad.

“With one dollar less, everyone who receives dollars loses value when it comes to giving change,” said Balaguera.